Audio Script:

We’re going to do a quick recap on the oilseed and canola markets for everyone today.

Just quickly, at a global level. Two of the key numbers that came out this week (filmed 28th May 2021) were global oilseed stocks at a 5 year low, which is pretty significant. And we’ve also seen a really big increase in oil consumption, particularly in the US and China, so those two factors alone are having a really big impact on global oilseed markets, be it beans or canola.

The key takeaway number I think on soybeans which is pretty important, is the stock to use ratio numbers. Back in 18/19, stock to use ratio closed at about 32.6%, which is a pretty comfortable number. This year, the forecast for the 20/21 season will be back at about 25.4%, so that’s quite a big step down from two years ago. And again, that stocks to use ratio number is why this market is behaving like it is at the moment.

Just quickly in North America, everyone would have probably seen they’ve had a pretty good rainfall event, which is what had been driving the market up until then. That rain has certainly taken the pressure valve off and we’ve seen these markets come right back up until last night (filmed 28th May 2021).

Locally here in Australia, WA is off to a really great start, they’ve had great summer rain and good follow up autumn rain. They’ve had a record plant of canola in the ground from all reports, so they’re off to a flyer over there.

In NSW, most regions of NSW have got good sub soil moisture, mice are a major problem. Hearing reports particularly in the southern half of the state of growers resowing crops that have been eaten by mice, which is obviously a concern.

And, in Victoria and South Australia, it’s obviously dry, although, south of the ranges in the south east of South Australia in those canola areas is actually off to a pretty good start. So, all in all, north of the ranges we need rain but obviously south things are actually ticking along okay.

That will be all for today, we’ll talk again soon.